Renewable Ammonia Supply Chain: Regime-Switching Buffer Model (2D)

Green ammonia projects face a scheduling mismatch: wind and solar power available to run Haber-Bosch synthesis fluctuates persistently in regimes — calm spells, breezy averages, gusty peaks — while ships load fixed-size cargoes on a fixed calendar. This 2D model drives the mismatch with a continuous-time Markov chain over three wind regimes (a Gillespie-simulated, exactly-solvable stochastic process, independent of the 3D version's diffusion noise) feeding the same buffer-tank mass balance: production fills the tank, scheduled shipping events drain it, and the tank clips at zero (stockout) and at capacity (curtailment). Tune the mean capacity factor, its variability, the tank's size and the shipping cadence, and watch curtailed tonnage and stockout frequency respond live — including on a scrolling strip chart that shows the tank level against the active wind regime over time.