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Birth-Defect Cluster Illusion Simulator

Interactive Poisson-statistics simulator: birth defects occur at a known non-zero baseline rate everywhere, so scanning many regions and picking the one with the highest count will nearly always look like an alarming 'cluster' near an alleged exposure site — even when every region shares the exact same underlying rate.

Biology2DEasy60 FPS📱 Mobile-adapted⇄ 3D version
ufo-embryos-pollution ↗ Open standalone

Alleged "cancer clusters" or "birth-defect clusters" near power lines, factories or reported UFO-sighting hotspots are one of the most common environmental-health scares — and one of the most commonly statistically wrong. Because developmental anomalies occur at a known, non-zero baseline rate in every population, some towns will always show an above-average count purely from ordinary random variation, the same way some coin-flip runs land on more heads than others. This simulator generates many independent regions from a single shared baseline rate, highlights whichever region happens to look worst, and runs a real Poisson significance test comparing its observed count to the population baseline — then shows how a Bonferroni multiple-comparisons correction deflates the "signal" back to noise once you account for how many regions were scanned before picking the extreme one.

⚙ Under the hood

Explore how pollution affects birth defects in a simulated population. Clusters of defects are compared against a baseline rate to determine if they are statistically significant.

simulationepidemiologypollutionbirth defects

2D · HTML5 Canvas 2D · 60 FPS target · runs fully client-side, no install

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