UFO Occurrence Base-Rate Simulator (3D)

This 3D scene renders the base-rate fallacy as two point populations you can orbit around: a tiny gold cluster of genuine anomalies, and a huge gray cloud of mundane look-alike events. Every frame, points from both populations independently flash a "report" — gold points at the report-reliability rate, gray points at the false-positive rate. Because the gray cloud vastly outnumbers the gold cluster, most of the flashes you actually see come from the mundane population, even when its per-point false-positive rate is much lower than the gold cluster's reliability. The side panel's Bayesian posterior tracks the true probability that any given report came from a genuine anomaly — watch it stay low even as the reliability slider climbs, because the population-size imbalance dominates.