💉 GLP-1 Drug Shortage Access Equity Simulator

Manufacturing Meets Diabetic Glucose-Control Demand

Supply chain runs steady, fully meeting medically necessary diabetic demand.

• ~9M: Type 2 diabetes patients on GLP-1s (US baseline population)
• 1.5×: Baseline supply-demand ratio (comfortable surplus)
• 12: FDA-approved manufacturing sites (global production network)
• $935: Avg monthly list price (pre-shortage pricing)

A well-matched supply chain

Production capacity was sized for diabetic glucose-control demand only, with modest surplus.

Insurance formularies work as intended

Prior authorization is routine but access is rarely denied to patients with a clinical need.

Weight-Loss Demand Enters the Same Supply Pool

Broader off-label use begins drawing heavily on the shared manufacturing pool.

• +300%: Off-label weight-loss prescriptions (2021–2023 growth)
• ~100M: US adults with obesity (eligible pool) (far exceeds diabetic pool)
• ~40%: New scripts via telehealth/social media (of new starts)
• ~1.1×: Supply-demand ratio (margin tightening fast)

A much larger demand pool awakens

The eligible weight-loss population dwarfs the diabetic population manufacturing was sized for.

Two demand streams, one spigot

Diabetic and weight-loss demand now compete for the same finite monthly output.

Demand Overtakes Manufacturing Capacity

Total demand crosses the supply line; national shortage conditions begin.

• 2022: FDA shortage declared (Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro)
• ~65%: Pharmacies reporting stockouts (national pharmacy survey)
• <1.0×: Supply-demand ratio (deficit begins)
• ↑ sharply: Compounded-drug substitution requests (unregulated alternatives)

The pool starts draining

Monthly output can no longer refill what both demand streams draw out.

Early warning signs at the pharmacy counter

Patients face delayed refills and backorders well before shortage is formally declared.

Insurers, Pharmacies, and Price Ration Scarce Doses

Formulary rules tighten, cash prices spike, and patients get switched off.

• ~80%: Insurers requiring prior authorization (up from ~45%)
• $1,300+: Cash-pay monthly price (shortage-era premium)
• ~30%: Diabetic patients switched to alternatives (off first-line therapy)
• active: Pharmacy per-store allocation caps (limits on refill quantity)

Rationing rules favor the well-resourced

Cash-pay and concierge channels quietly bypass the queue that insured patients wait in.

Diabetic patients are not automatically protected

Medical necessity helps, but does not guarantee a dose when shelves are empty.

Ability to Pay Determines Access; Diabetics Crowded Out

The shortage settles into a lasting equity gap across income and need.

• -25 to -40%: Diabetic access rate decline (vs pre-surge baseline)
• ~70%: High-income weight-loss access (cash / concierge channels)
• <15%: Low-income weight-loss access (frequent insurance denial)
• +150%+: Out-of-pocket cost trend (shortage-driven index)

Need alone no longer predicts access

Ability to pay increasingly outweighs clinical necessity in who receives a dose.

A durable two-tier access pattern

Wealthier weight-loss seekers keep access while lower-income diabetics absorb the shortfall.