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Extreme Event Attribution: Fraction of Attributable Risk

Interactive climate-attribution simulator: compare a warmed 'factual' world against a pre-industrial 'counterfactual' world, sample climate-model ensembles, and watch the Fraction of Attributable Risk (FAR) and Risk Ratio used as evidence in real climate-litigation cases.

Climate, Ecology & Environment3DAdvanced60 FPS📱 Mobile-adapted

This simulator visualises the statistical method that underlies modern climate-litigation evidence: comparing the odds of an extreme event in today's warmed climate against a counterfactual pre-industrial world. Two Monte-Carlo ensembles of model runs are drawn as 3D histograms — a green "factual" row shifted by the chosen warming, and a blue "counterfactual" row representing a world without human-caused emissions — with a translucent threshold plane marking where an event counts as "extreme". Live readouts track the exceedance probability in each world plus the two headline attribution metrics, Risk Ratio and Fraction of Attributable Risk, that expert witnesses present in cases like Urgenda v. Netherlands and Milieudefensie v. Shell.

⚙ Under the hood

Compare a warmed 'factual' climate against a pre-industrial 'counterfactual' one using Monte Carlo model ensembles, and watch the Fraction of Attributable Risk and Risk Ratio — the statistics behind real climate-litigation evidence like Urgenda v. Netherlands.

climate litigationevent attributionrisk ratiostatisticsmonte carloclimate science

3D · Three.js / WebGL renderer · 60 FPS target · runs fully client-side, no install