Early Warning Lead-Time vs False-Alarm Simulator

Every early-warning system — coastal storm-surge buoys, seismic networks, wildfire cameras — faces the same trade-off: a low detection threshold catches real hazards early but drowns responders in false alarms, while a high threshold stays quiet until the signal is unmistakable, eating away the lead time people need to act. This simulator runs a storm surge repeatedly toward a 3D coastline watched by a configurable buoy network. Each buoy reports the true hazard signal plus independent sensor noise; the network averages readings and fires an alert once the mean crosses your threshold. A dissemination-and-response latency (Sendai Framework pillars 3–4) is then subtracted from the raw detection lead time before a logistic response curve decides what fraction of the coastal town evacuates in time — watch lead time, false-alarm rate and evacuation coverage move against each other as you retune the network.