3D Forecaster Reliability Diagram

A reliability diagram is the classic tool forecasting scientists use to audit a single forecaster's track record: bucket every prediction by its stated confidence, then check whether the real hit rate in each bucket matches the promise. This simulator renders that diagram in 3D — ten bars rising from a grid, one per confidence bin, their height set by live Bernoulli-trial outcomes — next to a translucent diagonal plane marking perfect calibration. Drag the overconfidence bias slider and watch the tall, high-confidence bars pull away from the plane as the forecaster's stated certainty stops matching reality, while the Brier score and expected calibration error quantify the gap numerically.