🧠 EDSS Disability Progression Simulator

Choosing an MS Course Type

Placeholder: MS course type shapes the whole disability trajectory.

• ~85%: RRMS share of onset (most common start)
• ~10-15%: PPMS share of onset (progressive from onset)
• 0-10: EDSS scale range (in 0.5 increments)
• ~30: Median RRMS age (typical onset age)

What EDSS measures

Placeholder: EDSS scores mobility and neurological function.

Baseline Disability Accumulation

Placeholder: RRMS steps up at relapses; PPMS declines smoothly.

• ~0.5-1.0: RRMS relapse jump (EDSS points per relapse)
• ~0.2-0.3: PPMS annual rate (EDSS points per year)
• partial: Remission recovery (incomplete over time)
• ~1.0-1.5: Early EDSS baseline (at diagnosis)

Stepwise vs continuous

Placeholder: relapses cause jumps; PPMS has no plateaus.

RRMS to SPMS Conversion

Placeholder: relapses fade, gradual decline phase begins instead.

• ~10-15 yrs: Median conversion time (after RRMS onset)
• steady: Post-conversion slope (less relapse-driven)
• ~0.15-0.2: SPMS annual rate (EDSS points per year)
• year 12: Conversion marker (used in this model)

Why the curve bends

Placeholder: inflammation shifts toward neurodegeneration.

Disease-Modifying Therapy Effect

Placeholder: effective DMT flattens the slope of decline.

• -40 to -60%: High-efficacy DMT (relapse rate reduction)
• ~70%: Slope reduction max (modeled here)
• better: Earlier start (outcome benefit)
• limited: PPMS DMT options (fewer proven agents)

Flattening the curve

Placeholder: therapy reduces slope, rarely reverses damage.

Comparing Trajectories Across Course Types

Placeholder: overlay all three courses with and without therapy.

• RRMS+DMT: Best outcome (flattest trajectory)
• PPMS: Steepest untreated (no plateau phase)
• early Tx: Key decision point (window matters most)
• walking aid: EDSS 6.0 milestone (needed at this level)

Takeaway

Placeholder: course type and therapy timing both matter.