🧪 Management Decision Making Simulation

Informed business decisions rest on comparing uncertain options fairly — and "fairly" depends on who is asking. This simulator lays out a real decision tree with three strategies (launch a new product, improve the existing one, or hold), each ending in an uncertain success/failure payoff. Adjust each branch's success probability and watch backward induction fold the tree back to a single expected monetary value (EMV) per branch — the risk-neutral, purely-average view. A second, independent rollback applies a CARA utility function controlled by a risk-tolerance slider to compute each branch's certainty equivalent (CE) — the guaranteed cash a risk-averse decision-maker would take instead of the gamble. Watch the two recommendations agree or diverge as you move the sliders: a high-upside, high-downside strategy can top the EMV ranking while dropping to the bottom of the risk-adjusted one, which is exactly the "multiple perspectives" tension real risk-assessment committees argue over.