Pandemic Resource Allocation Network: A Dynamic Model of Disease Spread and Supply Chain Management

What is the Pandemic Resource Allocation Network?

The Pandemic Resource Allocation Network (PRAN) is a sophisticated model that simulates the spread of infectious diseases across multiple regions while also managing the allocation of medical resources. This 2D network diagram visualizes each region's status in terms of infection levels and stock availability, providing insights into how different strategies can impact the overall outcome.

By adjusting parameters such as transmission rates, travel restrictions, shipping capacity, and resource allocation methods, users can observe real-time changes in the model, making it a valuable tool for public health officials and policymakers.

How Does the PRAN Model Work?

The PRAN model is based on the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) framework, which divides the population into three categories: those who are susceptible to infection, those who are infected and infectious, and those who have recovered. In addition, it incorporates a hub-and-spoke medical supply network where resources can be shipped between regions.

Travel restrictions and shipping capacity affect how quickly infections spread and how efficiently resources can be moved, while different allocation strategies (equal split, proportional, or greedy triage) determine how medical supplies are distributed among the regions.

Why Does Allocation Strategy Matter?

The choice of resource allocation strategy significantly influences the course of a pandemic. For instance, equal splitting resources might ensure that no region runs out but could lead to uneven distribution and inefficiencies.

On the other hand, proportional allocation based on need can be more effective in managing stockouts, while greedy triage prioritizes high-risk areas or critical needs, potentially saving lives at the expense of others.

Real-World Applications

The PRAN model has direct applications in public health planning and resource management during pandemics. It helps policymakers understand the impact of various interventions on disease spread and resource scarcity, enabling them to make informed decisions.

By simulating different scenarios, stakeholders can identify optimal strategies for allocating medical supplies, implementing travel restrictions, and managing infection rates to mitigate the overall impact of a pandemic.

Frequently asked questions

Try it live

Everything above runs in your browser — open Pandemic Resource Allocation Network (2D) and change the parameters while it is running. Nothing is installed, nothing is uploaded, the whole model lives in one tab.