3D Heatwave Mortality Risk Model: Visualizing Urban…

Model Overview

The 3D Heatwave Mortality Risk Model is an advanced simulation designed to predict and visualize the health risks associated with extreme heat events in urban environments. It leverages the Rothfusz heat-index regression formula, which calculates the apparent temperature (heat index) based on air temperature and relative humidity.

By rendering a city as a 3D model where buildings turn red under high heat load and residents are color-coded by their risk of mortality, this tool provides a vivid representation of urban vulnerability during heatwaves.

Key Components

The model incorporates stage-based temperature/humidity profiles to simulate different levels of heat stress. Each stage represents varying degrees of discomfort and potential health risks, from mild to severe.

Additionally, the vulnerability-stratified mortality formula accounts for age, pre-existing conditions, and socioeconomic factors that increase susceptibility to heat-related illnesses.

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Real-World Applications

Urban planners and public health officials can use this model to identify high-risk areas within cities and implement targeted interventions such as green spaces, cooling centers, and improved building insulation.

By understanding the spatial distribution of heat-related risks, policymakers can develop more effective strategies for mitigating the impact of extreme heat events on vulnerable populations.

Interactive Features

The model allows users to interact with a 3D city environment by dragging to orbit and scrolling to zoom in or out. This provides a dynamic view of how different parts of the city are affected by heatwaves.

Sliders for adjusting peak temperature, vulnerable population percentage, and air conditioning access among the most vulnerable can help users explore various scenarios and their potential outcomes.

Frequently asked questions

How does the model account for individual vulnerability?

The 3D Heatwave Mortality Risk Model uses a vulnerability-stratified mortality formula that considers factors such as age, pre-existing medical conditions, and socioeconomic status to predict which individuals are at higher risk during heatwaves.

What is the significance of the Rothfusz heat-index regression in this model?

The Rothfusz heat-index regression formula is crucial as it accurately calculates the apparent temperature (heat index) based on air temperature and relative humidity, providing a reliable basis for assessing heat-related health risks.

Can the model be used to predict mortality rates in other cities?

Yes, with appropriate data on local demographics, climate conditions, and infrastructure, this model can be adapted to predict mortality rates in other cities, providing valuable insights for public health planning.

How does the model represent cooling centers?

Cooling center domes are represented as structures that visibly grow and provide shelter to residents at risk. This helps users understand how these facilities can mitigate heat-related risks in real-world scenarios.

Try it live

Everything above runs in your browser — open 3D Heatwave Mortality Risk Model and change the parameters while it is running. Nothing is installed, nothing is uploaded, the whole model lives in one tab.

▶ Open 3D Heatwave Mortality Risk Model simulation

3D Heatwave Mortality Risk Model: Visualizing Urban Vulnerability