Korzenie Tendencji do Błędu Decyzyjnego

Systematic Errors in Judgment

At its core, behavioral economics examines systematic errors in judgment that people make – known as cognitive biases. These aren’t random mistakes; they’re predictable patterns of deviation from rationality.

Examples include the *availability heuristic*, where we overestimate the likelihood of events readily available in our memory (e.g., fearing plane crashes more than car accidents), and the *confirmation bias*, leading us to seek out information that confirms pre-existing beliefs.

Framing Effects

The framing of information significantly influences decision-making, even when the underlying facts remain constant. People tend to react differently to the same situation depending on how it is presented.

This effect demonstrates that our judgments are not solely based on objective data but also on the context in which information is delivered.

Loss Aversion = (Sensitivity to Loss) > (Sensitivity to Gain)

Cognitive Biases

Humans are prone to systematic errors in judgment and decision-making known as cognitive biases. These biases can significantly impact our choices, often without us realizing it.

One common bias is the availability heuristic, where we overestimate the likelihood of events that are readily available in our memory. For instance, after seeing numerous news reports about shark attacks, individuals may perceive sharks as a greater threat than they actually represent.

Applications in Simulation

Within this simulator, we’ll observe how incorporating behavioral biases – such as loss aversion or overconfidence – impacts simulated market behavior.

Users can experiment with different levels of bias to see how it affects investment strategies and overall portfolio performance. This highlights the importance of understanding human psychology in financial modeling.

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