Warm a patch of ground and let a parcel of moist air rise. It cools as it expands, condenses at the lifting condensation level and then keeps climbing only if it stays warmer than the surrounding air. Change the weather and watch the cloud base, the top and the updraft speed move.
Sweeps the surface dew point from 0 C to just below the air temperature and compares the numerical parcel lifting with the textbook rule 125 m per degree of dew-point depression and with the Bolton closed form.
The science
Dry ascent. An unsaturated parcel keeps its potential temperature, so T = T0 (p/p0)R/cp, about 9.8 K/km, while its mixing ratio r is fixed. Pressure follows the hydrostatic equation dp/dz = −p g/(R Tenv).
Lifting condensation level. The parcel saturates when r = rs(T,p) = 0.622 es/(p − es) with es = 6.112 exp(17.67 T/(T + 243.5)) hPa (Bolton 1980). Rule of thumb: LCL ≈ 125 m × (T − Td).
Moist ascent. Condensation releases latent heat, so the lapse rate shrinks to Γm = g (1 + L rs/(R T)) / (cp + L² rs ε/(R T²)) (3–6 K/km in the lower troposphere). The equivalent potential temperature of Bolton (1980, eq. 43) stays constant: this is one of the page checks.
Buoyancy, CAPE, CIN. B = g (Tparcel − Tenv)/Tenv. The level of free convection (LFC) is where B first becomes positive above the LCL, the equilibrium level (EL) where it turns negative again. CAPE = ∫LFCEL B dz, CIN is the negative area below the LFC. The undiluted upper bound for the updraft is wmax = √(2 CAPE); the cloud top rises at about half of √(2 ∫B dz) as a rough allowance for mixing [model factor].
Shallow cumulus rule [model]. If there is no LFC but the parcel is less than 3 K colder than the air within 3 km above the LCL and the LCL is below 3 km, the picture shows a shallow cloud about 300–600 m deep (fair-weather cumulus pushed up by turbulence); otherwise the sky stays clear. Rain is drawn when the cloud is deeper than 4 km.
Simplifications. Reversible moist adiabat (no fallout), virtual temperature and liquid water loading neglected, constant parcel moisture, environment profile piecewise linear with an optional inversion and an isothermal stratosphere above 11 km.