Release hundreds of hailstone embryos into one storm updraft, let each grow by accretion, melt on the way down, and read the swath that lands on a moving storm's path.
Ready.
Each row re-runs a 120-stone ensemble with the same settings except the peak updraft speed. Predicted = the largest stone an updraft of that speed can hold up at its strongest point (drag = weight).
The science
Terminal velocity and drag. A stone of diameter D and density ρh falls through air of density ρa at vt = √(4 ρh g D / (3 Cd ρa)) with Cd = 0.6 (a typical value for rough spheres at these Reynolds numbers; the real coefficient varies from about 0.5 to 0.8). An updraft of speed w holds a stone aloft when w = vt, so the biggest stone it can support is Dsup = 3 Cd ρa w² / (4 ρh g).
Accretion. Supercooled droplets freeze on contact. Mass collected per second is dm/dt = E (πD²/4) |vrel| · LWC with collection efficiency E = 1 (droplets are tiny and almost all stick; for small embryos the true E is lower), LWC the liquid-water content, and vrel the stone speed relative to the air.
Dry and wet growth (Schumann–Ludlam). Latent heat must leave the surface: Q = h πD² (0 − Ta) with h from the Ranz–Marshall relation Nu = 2 + 0.6 Re1/2 Pr1/3. The most mass that can freeze per second is dmcrit/dt = Q / (Lf − cw|Ta|). Below that the stone grows dry (white, porous, bulk density 600 kg/m³ here); above it the surface stays wet, clear ice (900 kg/m³) forms and the surplus water is shed. An evaporative-cooling term (vapour diffusion from the 0 °C surface into saturated cloud air, Sherwood number analogous to Nu) is added to Q. Spongy-hail retention of liquid water is neglected.
Melting. Below the 0 °C level the same convective heat flux, h πD² Ta, melts the outside at dm/dt = −h πD² Ta / Lf; meltwater is shed.
Storm. Updraft w = wmax sin(πz/Ztop) exp(−(r/R)²); temperature falls 6.5 K/km; air density ρa = 1.225 e−z/8.5 km. Winds follow a turning shear profile, the storm moves with 75 % of the 5.5 km wind, and stones follow the air horizontally while drag acts on the relative velocity. Motion is integrated with fourth-order Runge–Kutta with an adaptive step.
Simplifications and honesty. The updraft is a fixed analytic shape, not a cloud model; LWC is a prescribed profile (the number you set is the peak in the core); stones do not deplete the cloud water; there is no electrification, no collisions, no hail fragmentation and no aggregation. Impact energy is ½ m v² at the first ground contact with no air-cushion or bounce. Size names (coin, golf ball, tennis ball) are typical sizes of everyday objects. The numbers are for teaching the mechanism, not for forecasting a particular storm.
Educational model. Family-friendly: targets are only ground and open field.