EV vs Gasoline: Total Cost of Ownership Race

Ownership costs

Annual mileage 12,000 mi

Gasoline price $3.80/gal

Electricity price $0.16/kWh

EV price premium $9,000

EV maintenance saving $500/yr

Year

Break-even

–

Gasoline TCO

EV TCO

15-year savings with EV

How it works

Two identical trips, two cost curves. The gasoline car starts cheaper to buy but bleeds cash every year at the pump; the EV costs more up front but each mile is far cheaper to power, and it needs less routine maintenance (no oil changes, fewer moving parts). The simulator drives both cars forward one simulated year at a time, stacking a cost tower behind each one, and marks the year the EV's tower drops below the gasoline car's — the break-even point where the higher purchase price has been paid back in fuel and maintenance savings.

TCO_gas(t) = P_gas + t·(miles/mpg·price_gas + maint_gas)
TCO_ev(t)  = P_gas + premium + t·(miles/(mi_per_kWh)·price_elec + maint_gas − maintSave)
break-even: smallest t where TCO_ev(t) ≤ TCO_gas(t)

Annual mileage — more driving means the per-mile energy-cost gap compounds faster, pulling the break-even year earlier.
Gasoline price — higher pump prices punish the gasoline car every year and shorten the payback period for the EV.
Electricity price — expensive electricity erodes the EV's running-cost advantage; push it high enough and the EV never catches up.
EV price premium — the extra sticker price the EV has to earn back before it becomes the cheaper car overall.
EV maintenance saving — fewer fluids, brakes (via regenerative braking) and moving parts typically lower EV upkeep versus a combustion engine.

This mirrors the real-world total-cost-of-ownership (TCO) analysis used by fleet buyers and households deciding between a battery-electric and a gasoline vehicle: purchase price is only half the story — fuel/energy cost per mile and maintenance over the ownership period decide the winner.

Year 0 / 15

EV — cost tower Gasoline — cost tower Break-even marker

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