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The science
Equations of entry. A body of mass m, speed v and flight-path angle γ below the horizontal, at height h, in an exponential atmosphere ρa = ρ0 e-h/H (ρ0 = 1.225 kg/m3, H = 7.16 km) obeys
m dv/dt = -(1/2) CD ρa A v2 + m g sinγ, dγ/dt = -(g/v) cosγ + (v/(RE+h)) cosγ, dh/dt = -v sinγ
dm/dt = -CH ρa A v3 / (2Q) (heat of ablation Q, heat-transfer coefficient CH)
Gravity is g = 9.81 (RE/(RE+h))2 m/s2 and the Earth is curved, so a shallow trajectory bends upward in the flat-earth picture. The code integrates these with a fourth-order Runge-Kutta scheme.
Ballistic limit (Allen-Eggers). With constant area, no ablation, no gravity and a straight path, the speed has the closed form
v(h) = v0 exp[ -(ρ0 H / (2 β sinγ)) (e-h/H - e-h0/H) ], β = m / (CD A)
and the maximum deceleration occurs where ρa(h*) = β sinγ / H, i.e. h* = H ln(ρ0 H / (β sinγ)). Heavy compact bodies (large β) pass this height lower down or reach the ground; light or weak ones are stopped high up.
Breakup and the pancake model. When the ram pressure ρa v2 exceeds the strength σ, the body is assumed to break into a cloud of fragments that spreads at dr/dt = v √(ρa/ρm). The frontal area grows as π r2, the drag soars, and most of the kinetic energy is released in a short altitude range: an airburst. Energy deposition per kilometre is taken from the kinetic energy lost in each 1 km altitude bin and is quoted in kilotons of TNT (1 kt = 4.184 TJ).
Checks (run in the page). (1) the numerical speed at 60 km against the Allen-Eggers closed form; (2) the altitude of maximum deceleration against H ln(ρ0 H /(β sinγ)); (3) convergence of the full model with halved time step; (4) energy conservation of the equations in vacuum; (5) ablated mass against the integral of CH ρa A v3/(2Q).
Simplifications. A single intact body or a single pancaking cloud (no discrete fragments, no wake shielding, no rotation or lift); constant CD and CH (real values change with Mach and Knudsen number at high altitude); an isothermal exponential atmosphere; kinetic energy lost is counted as deposited even though a part leaves as light and a part heats the body. The presets are of the right order for well-known events, not fits to them. Educational physics only: inanimate rock and ice, no damage or casualty modelling.