Geopolitical Risk Network Simulator

Network Controls

Effect strength 1.0×

Click a link between two countries to cycle it: Trade → Sanctions → Conflict → Trade.

Link state

Trade — normal ties Sanctions — restricted Conflict — severed

Risk index

Affected countries

0 / 7

Sanctioned links

Conflict links

How it works

Seven countries sit in a network of weighted trade/diplomatic links (line thickness = tie strength). Imposing sanctions or triggering conflict on a link turns it into a continuous risk source. Risk then diffuses outward frame by frame through every link that is still standing, weaker along sanctioned links and weakest along severed ones — a simple model of how instability still spills through neighbours, allies and shared supply chains even when a direct channel is cut.

source(link) = 0 | 0.35·w·force | 0.75·w·force
d(risk_i)/dt = source_i + gain·Σ_j w_ij·k(state_ij)·(risk_j − risk_i) − decay·risk_i

Effect strength — scales how large a shock each sanctioned or conflicted link injects into the network.
Node colour — interpolates green (stable) → amber → red (high risk) as each country's risk value rises.
Risk index — the size-weighted sum of every country's risk, shown as a single headline number.
Affected countries — how many nodes have crossed the 15% risk threshold, i.e. are visibly feeling the cascade.

Real-world relevance: this is the same qualitative pattern behind indices like the Caldara–Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index — a shock at one bilateral relationship (tariffs, an embargo, a border conflict) rarely stays contained; it propagates through trade dependency and alliance networks to third countries that were never party to the original dispute.

Drag to pan · click a link to change its state

North America Europe East Asia Eurasia South Asia Middle East South America

Country risk

lowhigh