People move when local conditions deteriorate enough relative to the opportunity elsewhere — a balance of push, pull and capacity.
P(move) = push_factor * proximity_to_capacity
relocation flow ~ hazard - resilience
- Population at risk — households exposed to worsening climate hazard in the origin region.
- Receiving capacity — how much room the destination region has for new arrivals.
- Push-factor intensity — how severe the climate driver (drought, sea-level rise, heat) is.
- Movement speed — how quickly households act once conditions cross their personal threshold.
The World Bank projects over 200 million internal climate migrants by 2050 — modelling these flows is core to adaptation and resettlement planning.