UFO Specialists Pollution Anchoring — 3D Chain

Specialist Consultation Chain — 3D

Anchoring strength 0.70

Consultation-chain length 8

First specialist's estimate 85 ppb

True contamination

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Final consensus

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Drift from truth

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Unanchored drift

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How it works

Each glowing bar is one specialist, consulted in order along the chain. A specialist's bar height is the pollution level they state out loud — and because they were told the previous specialist's number before answering, their bar visibly clusters toward the first (orange) anchor bar instead of scattering around the true value (yellow plane).

stated₁ = firstAnchor
trueᵢ = TRUE + noiseᵢ            (specialist i's private, independent read)
adjustFraction = 1 − anchoringStrength
statedᵢ = anchorᵢ₋₁ + adjustFraction·(trueᵢ − anchorᵢ₋₁)
anchorᵢ = statedᵢ

Anchoring strength — how little each bar adjusts off the previous one. Near 0.95, every bar sits almost flush with the first anchor bar; near 0 the bars scatter independently around the true-value plane.
Consultation-chain length — how many specialist nodes are placed along the row.
First specialist's estimate — sets the height of the orange anchor bar that seeds the whole chain.
Independent (unanchored) bars — translucent cyan ghost bars behind each node show what that specialist would have said with no knowledge of prior answers.

Real-world relevance: this is the same mechanism behind anchoring in sequential medical second opinions, expert-witness testimony and property appraisals — a later expert's judgment pulled toward an earlier number instead of forming an untainted estimate.

Anchored bar (stated) Independent ghost bar True-value plane First anchor bar

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