Belief Landscape: Confirmation Bias in 3D

Belief Landscape

Confirmation-bias strength 0.55

Evidence ambiguity 0.70

Evidence arrival rate 2.0/s

Belief strength

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Well depth (entrenchment)

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Weighting asymmetry

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Evidence seen

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How it works

The terrain is a potential-energy curve over the space of possible beliefs, from certain skeptic (left well) to certain believer (right well). The marker ball is the investigator's current belief and always rolls downhill. Early on the terrain is nearly flat — a weak prior, easily moved either way. Every confirming piece of evidence carves the well under the ball's current side deeper (over-weighted); every disconfirming piece barely dents the opposite side (under-weighted). The ball keeps sliding into an ever-deepening well of its own making — a physical picture of the same log-odds update as the 2D version, but here the bias literally reshapes the landscape instead of just moving a line on a chart.

w = confirms current belief ? (1+k) : (1−k)
L += w · s · rate ;  x = tanh(L/4)   (ball position, −1..+1)
depth(side) += w · |s| · rate        (entrenchment carved into terrain)

Confirmation-bias strength (k) — how much faster the confirming-side well deepens relative to the disconfirming side. At k=0 the terrain stays flat and the ball just jitters near center.
Evidence ambiguity — how weak each individual falling evidence particle's true signal really is; higher ambiguity means most particles land near the center line, genuinely uninformative.
Evidence arrival rate — how often particles rain down and nudge the ball.
Well depth — the readout tracks how deep the terrain has been carved on the ball's current side — the visible, physical form of entrenchment.

Confirming evidence particle Disconfirming evidence particle Belief marker

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