Model: rational-offender deterrence (Becker 1968). A resident offends when expected utility (1 - p) G - p F - m is positive, where G is the gain, m the personal moral cost, F the penalty (fine plus prison) and p the local apprehension probability from officer coverage. Prison incapacitates but can lower moral cost after release (Nagin 2013). Certainty usually deters more than severity. Illustrative model, not legal advice.