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The science
Buoyancy. A hot-air balloon is open at the bottom, so the air inside is at the same pressure as outside; only its density differs. From the ideal-gas law:
rho = p M / (R T), F_lift = V g (rho_out - rho_in) - m gWith 15 C air outside and 100 C inside, each cubic metre carries about 0.28 kg, so a 2,800 m3 envelope lifts about 780 kg in total including its own fabric, basket and passengers.
Atmosphere. The outside state follows the International Standard Atmosphere: T(z) = T0 - 6.5 K/km * z, p(z) = p0 (T/T0)^(g M / (R L)) so lift drops with altitude and temperature.
Heat balance. The enclosed air (heat capacity rho V c_p) gains energy from the burner Q and loses it through the fabric surface A with coefficient k:
rho V c_p dT/dt = Q - k A (T - T_out)Hovering needs the steady-state burner power Q = k A (T* - T_out), where T* makes the net lift zero.
Vertical motion. Newton's law with drag and added mass: (m + rho_in V + 0.5 rho_out V) dv/dt = F_lift - 0.5 rho_out C_d A_p v|v|
Checks. (1) ISA sea-level density 1.225 kg/m3; (2) textbook gross lift of a 2,800 m3 balloon at 100 C; (3) a separate time-stepped heat balance settles on the analytic hover temperature; (4) net lift is zero at that temperature.
Simplifications. Uniform envelope temperature (real balloons stratify), constant loss coefficient (no radiation/convection split), fixed drag coefficient, no turbulence, horizontal motion equals the local wind, burner power treated as continuous and convertible to air heat with 100% efficiency.