Disease Eradication Campaign Simulator

Campaign Status

Global active cases

Regions eradicated

0 / 16

Campaign day

Intervention Controls

Vaccination coverage rate 2.0%/day

Cross-border travel rate 40%

Pathogen R₀ 6.0

Ring vaccination around active outbreaks

How it works

Each of the 16 regions runs its own SIR model with an added vaccination term, coupled to its network neighbors by traveler-imported cases:

dS/dt = −βSI − vS
dI/dt = βSI − γI + import
dR/dt = γI + vS
β = R0·γ,  γ = 1/14 per day
import = travelRate · S · mean(I_neighbor) · k

S, I, R are fractions of each region's population (susceptible, infectious, recovered/immune). Vaccination moves people directly from S to R at rate v. When a region's case count would fall below one real person, it is forced to exactly zero — this is stochastic extinction: eradication is a discrete, not continuous, event, exactly how smallpox (1980) and near-eradicated polio actually reach zero.

Vaccination coverage rate — the baseline share of each region's susceptible pool vaccinated per day by the campaign.
Cross-border travel rate — how strongly an infected neighbor can reseed a region that has already reached zero cases.
Pathogen R0 — the basic reproduction number; herd immunity requires vaccinating roughly 1 − 1/R0 of the population.
Ring vaccination — the real-world containment strategy (used against smallpox and Ebola): the moment a region reports active cases, its direct neighbors receive a temporary vaccination surge to wall off the outbreak before it spreads further.
Seed Outbreak — reintroduces the pathogen into a random region, letting you test whether the campaign holds against resurgence after partial eradication.

Global eradication is declared only once every region shows zero active cases simultaneously — a single unreached pocket can reseed the whole network, which is exactly why real eradication programs chase the last 1% the hardest.

Eradicated (0 cases) Susceptible, no cases Active outbreak

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