Wellness Preventive Care Simulation

Preventive Program

Screening interval 12 mo

Test sensitivity 40%

Population risk level 1.0×

Simulation speed 4 mo/s

Cohort Status

Elapsed

0 mo

Health index

100

Early-detect rate

—

Active cases

Healthy Undetected (latent) Caught early Caught late (symptomatic) Recovered Chronic / advanced

How it works

Each of the 260 dots is a simulated person. Every simulated month, a healthy person has a small chance of developing a silent, slow-growing condition (its "severity" s starts at 0 and grows by a random monthly rate g toward a symptomatic threshold s = 1):

P(onset per month) = h0 · risk
s(t) = s(t-1) + g,   g ~ U(0.06, 0.12)
symptomatic when s ≥ 1  →  "caught late"

If screening runs every T months, any latent case with severity above the sensitivity threshold s ≥ d is caught early — before it becomes symptomatic. A smaller T (more frequent screening) or a lower d (a more sensitive test) catches disease at a smaller s.

caught early when: t mod T = 0  and  s ≥ d

Outcome after detection is a sigmoid function of the severity at the moment of catch — the earlier (smaller s) a case is caught, the higher its recovery probability:

P(recover | s_detect) = 1 / (1 + e^(8·(s_detect − 0.55)))

The health index is a weighted average over the cohort's current states (healthy/recovered ≈ 1.0, latent ≈ 0.9, early treatment ≈ 0.7, late treatment ≈ 0.3, chronic ≈ 0.4). Turning screening off (interval = 0) or making it rare pushes most detections into the "caught late" bucket and drags the index down — the same mechanism behind real-world preventive-care guidelines for cancer and chronic-disease screening intervals.

Screening every 12 mo · sensitivity 40%