Trees do not just receive rain: they send much of it back up. Follow a parcel of ocean air across 2,400 km of forest, clear part of the forest and see where the rain, the river and the recycled share go.
Each runs the whole model (3 spin-up years) for several values and prints the last year.
The science
Atmospheric column. Precipitable water w (mm) is carried inland at wind speed u. Along the path, u dw/dx = E − P with evapotranspiration E adding water and rain P = w/τ removing it, where τ is a rain-out time scale (about 8 days, longer in the dry season). Inside one 50 km cell this has the exact solution w(x) = Eτ + (win − Eτ) e−x/(uτ), and the rain of the cell follows from mass balance, P = E + u (win − wout)/Δx.
Moisture recycling. A second, tagged water amount wf carries only water that came from the land surface: it has the same source E but no inflow, and rain removes it in proportion to its share. The share of rain that is recycled is ρ = wf/w (the Brubaker-type recycling ratio).
Evaporation demand. Priestley-Taylor equilibrium evaporation Eeq = α Δ/(Δ + γ) Rn/λ with Δ from the Magnus saturation curve, γ = 0.0665 kPa/K, λ = 2.45 MJ/kg and a seasonal Rn around 130 W/m². Forest transpiration is 92 % of the demand while its deep root zone (350 mm of plant-available water) holds water; pasture transpires 62 % of the demand from a shallow 100 mm bucket that runs dry in the dry season.
Interception. Wet canopy storage is 0.3 mm per unit leaf area (LAI 5 for forest, 1.2 for pasture); each rainy day (about 8 mm per event) fills it once and that water evaporates straight back: I = min(½ P, nrain days · 0.3 LAI). This is a Gash-type simplification, typically 10-15 % of rain in tall forest.
Soil and rivers. St+1 = St + (P − I) − Et; whatever exceeds capacity leaves as runoff Q. The river on the map thickens with the cumulative runoff.
Simplifications and honesty. This is a one-dimensional, steady-flow box model: no vertical structure, no convective feedbacks, no changes in wind or in rain-out efficiency with clearing, no topography, no groundwater and a fixed monthly cycle. Observed forest-loss effects on rainfall depend strongly on these missing processes and on the scale of clearing, so numbers here are illustrative, not predictions for any real basin. All constants (τ, LAI, bucket depths, 8 mm per rainy day, α) are typical or tuned values, not measurements. Trees and the 2,400 km strip are drawn exaggerated. Assets modelled in Blender; the particles, clouds, rain and river are driven by the numbers on this page.