A fire from a point grows into an ellipse: fast at the head, slow at the back. Wind and slope stretch it; a lake, a firebreak and wet fuel bend it.
Polar plot of the distance a point fire covers per minute in each direction (ellipse with the ignition at the rear focus). The dot marks the wind or upslope direction.
Flat, uniform fuel, no lake or break. Each row ignites one point and stops the clock when the head has travelled 100 m. The numeric area is counted from the arrival-time solution; the ideal ellipse area is π a b. Above length-to-breadth of about 3 the 5 m grid cannot resolve the narrow ellipse and the numeric area is too small.
The science
Ellipse. In uniform fuel, wind and slope, a fire from a point grows into an ellipse. With the ignition at the rear focus, the distance covered per unit time in a direction ψ from the head is r(ψ) = Rh(1 − e)/(1 − e cos ψ). Head Rh, flank Rh(1 − e) and back Rh(1 − e)/(1 + e). The eccentricity follows from the length-to-breadth ratio, e = √(1 − 1/LB²).
Length-to-breadth. Anderson (1983): LB = 0.936 e0.2566 U + 0.461 e−0.1548 U − 0.397 with U the effective wind in mph (capped at 8). It equals 1 (a circle) in calm air. Here U is the magnitude of the vector sum of the midflame wind and a slope-equivalent wind 15 mph × tan(slope) × slope-influence, pointing upslope; the slope coefficient is illustrative.
Head rate. Rh = R0(1 − M/Mx)(1 + k U1.5): base rate R0 (grass 0.06, shrub 0.025, litter 0.008 m/s), moisture M with extinction Mx = 30 %, wind factor with k = 0.25 to 0.35. These constants are illustrative, in the spirit of Rothermel-type models, and not calibrated to a particular fuel model.
Huygens principle. Every burning point sends out its own elliptical wavelet; the fire front is the envelope. We solve for the earliest arrival time of fire at every node of a 129 × 129 grid (5 m cells) with Dijkstra's algorithm over 48 directions, using the local ellipse at every node, so heterogeneous wind (slope), a lake and a firebreak just change the local ellipse. The ellipse is convex and contains its focus, so its gauge function is subadditive and the straight line is the fastest path: the discrete solution converges to the ellipse.
Intensity. Byram: I = H w Rh with H = 18 600 kJ/kg and fuel load w (grass 0.3, shrub 1.0, litter 1.2 kg/m²), and flame length L = 0.0775 I0.46. The containment guide is a common rule of thumb (hand crews below about 1.2 m flame length, machinery below about 2.4 m, direct attack not safe above about 3.5 m).
Simplifications. Steady spread rates (no acceleration after ignition), no crown fire, spotting reduced to one rule (a break is crossed when it is not wider than the spotting distance, then at 35 % of the rate), constant wind over the domain, fixed residence time, no fire-atmosphere coupling, and a coarse grid that under-resolves very elongated fires. Educational model, not for operational use. Models built with Blender, scene by Three.js.