Capacity Factor & LCOE Explorer

Power Source

Plant Settings

Nameplate capacity 120 MW

Weather variability 50%

Time speed 1×

Live Readouts

Instantaneous output

0 MW

Sim. clock

Day 0, 00:00

Realized capacity factor

Rated capacity factor

—

Effective LCOE (cost per MWh actually delivered)

$0/MWh

Energy delivered

0 MWh

Cumulative cost

How it works

A plant's nameplate capacity P_rated is never what it actually delivers. Its capacity factor CF = average output ÷ P_rated depends on the resource itself: solar drops to zero every night, wind gusts and calms, while hydro and geothermal run close to flat.

Instantaneous power:
  Solar:  P(t) = P_rated · max(0, sin(πt/24)) · (1 + noise)
  Wind:   P(t) = P_rated · CF_base · (1 + OU-noise)   (gusty, mean-reverting)
  Hydro/Geo: P(t) = P_rated · CF_base · (1 + small noise)  (near-baseload)

Realized CF = (Σ P(t)·Δt) / (P_rated · Σ Δt)

Effective LCOE = LCOE_base · (CF_rated / max(Realized CF, 0.03))

The last line is the key economic idea from the article's LCOE comparison: a plant's levelized cost is calculated assuming its rated capacity factor. If real weather delivers less energy than that assumption, the same fixed and financing costs are spread over fewer delivered megawatt-hours, so the effective cost per MWh rises above the quoted LCOE — exactly what curtailment, cloud cover and calm spells do to real grids.

Source	Rated CF	Base LCOE
Solar PV	20%	$40/MWh
Wind (onshore)	35%	$45/MWh
Wind (offshore)	50%	$95/MWh
Hydro	45%	$60/MWh
Geothermal	80%	$80/MWh

Weather variability — scales the noise amplitude around each source's typical output curve, from a calm/clear day (low) to a stormy or overcast one (high).
Energy packets flowing from the source to the grid collector are emitted at a rate proportional to instantaneous power — more packets, brighter flow, means more MW right now.

0 MW → grid

Energy packets Grid collector

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