True vs. forecast power over the forecast horizon
True powerForecast power
Relative error vs. lead time (running average)
Wind speed errorPower error
A 2D companion to the 3D wind farm: a synthetic true wind-speed path evolves as an autocorrelated Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, and a simulated forecast — built from persistence-decay toward the mean plus an explicit uncertainty term that grows with lead time — tries to predict it ahead of time. Both the true and forecast wind speeds are pushed through the same real turbine power curve (zero below cut-in, cubic in the mid-range, flat at rated power, zero above cut-out) at every timestep. Two live charts track true-versus-forecast power across the forecast horizon and the relative error of both wind speed and power as a function of lead time, making visible how the cubic power curve amplifies a modest wind-speed forecast error into a substantially larger power-forecast error.