Supply Chain Risk & Resilience Simulator

Sourcing Strategy

Supplier diversification 30%

Safety-stock buffer target 10 days

Global risk climate 1.0x

Live Metrics

Service level

—

Active suppliers

6 / 6

Cost index / day

Simulated day

Buffer stock10.0 / 10.0 days

Supplier Network

How it works

Each simulated day, demand D = 100 units must be covered by six suppliers split across three regions. Diversification d ∈ [0,1] blends a concentrated allocation (all weight on one primary supplier) with an even split across all six:

weight_i(d) = (1-d)·[i = primary] + d·(1/6)
supplied    = D · Σ weight_i over suppliers currently NOT disrupted
shortfall   = D - supplied

Two independent hazard processes remove suppliers from the network — matching real procurement risk: an idiosyncratic per-supplier failure (quality issue, insolvency) and a correlated regional disaster that knocks out every supplier in one region at once:

P(supplier fails)      = p_base · risk_climate         (per day, independent)
P(region disaster)     = p_region · risk_climate       (per day, hits both suppliers in a region)
outage duration        = 3–10 simulated days

Contingency layers absorb the shortfall in order: safety-stock buffer first, then — if emergency sourcing is enabled — a spot-market purchase covering 60% of what remains, at 3× unit cost. Whatever is still missing is a real stockout and drags the rolling service level down:

shortfall -= min(shortfall, buffer);           buffer -= that amount
if reactive: shortfall -= 0.6 · shortfall      (spot-market, 3× cost)
served          = D - shortfall
service level   = EMA(served / D, α = 0.1)
cost/unit(d)    = base · (1 + 0.4·d)           // diversification loses bulk discount

Diversification — spreads exposure across suppliers/regions but raises the per-unit purchase cost (smaller contracts, less leverage).
Buffer target — days of average demand held in reserve; it is topped up automatically whenever supply exceeds demand, at a small daily holding cost.
Risk climate — scales both hazard probabilities, simulating a calmer or more volatile world (geopolitics, weather, financial stress).
Emergency sourcing — a reactive contingency plan: expensive, only partially effective, but keeps some shortfall from becoming a real stockout.

The moving spheres are shipment flow, colour-coded by region and routed with probability proportional to each supplier's current allocation weight — a disrupted supplier stops receiving traffic immediately.

Factory / hub Disrupted supplier

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