Quantum Advantage Crossover: Market Unlock Simulator

Roadmap Assumptions

Qubit doubling period 2.0 yr

Error-rate suppression 0.60 /yr

Investment sentiment 1.0×

Simulation speed 1.0 yr/s

Live Readouts

Year

2026.0

Logical qubits

Physical error rate

1.0e-2

Segments unlocked

0 / 4

Total market revenue

$0.0B

Market Segments

How it works

Two hardware curves drive the whole model. Logical qubit count follows a doubling law and the physical two-qubit error rate decays exponentially:

Q(t)  = Q0 · 2^(t / D)         D = doubling period (yr)
ε(t)  = ε0 · e^(−k·t)          k = error-suppression rate (1/yr)

Each application segment only becomes economically viable — reaches "quantum advantage" — once both curves cross its own hardware bar (qubit count high enough and error rate low enough for the required circuit depth). Before that it earns nothing; a locked segment is not "growing slowly", it is exactly zero.

The instant a segment unlocks, its revenue follows the Bass diffusion model — the same equation used to forecast adoption of any new technology, driven by an innovation term p (early adopters) and an imitation term q (word of mouth / network effects):

dN/dt = (p + q·N/m) · (m − N)          N = cumulative adopters
R(t)  = N(t) · value-per-adopter        R = segment revenue

The investment sentiment slider scales p and q together — more capital chasing a newly-unlocked segment means faster diffusion, not a higher ceiling m. The three towers you see are Bass diffusion curves rendered as growing revenue columns, gated by the qubit/error thresholds shown per segment; the rising particle stream visualises the same cumulative revenue as flowing capital.

Qubit doubling period — shorter means the hardware frontier races ahead faster (matches industry roadmaps of 1.5–3 years).
Error suppression — how fast logical error rates fall as error-correction codes mature; higher unlocks precision-sensitive segments (cryptanalysis) sooner.
Investment sentiment — market appetite once a segment is technically unlocked; does not change *when* it unlocks, only how fast revenue ramps after.

Year 2026.0
Revenue $0.0B

⚠ Couldn't load the 3D engineThree.js failed to load from the CDN. Check your connection and reload.