This is the U.S. EPA LandGEM first-order decay model. Waste is deposited in discrete annual increments Mi (tonnes). Each increment's methane output decays exponentially from the moment it is buried:
Q(t) = Σᵢ k · L₀ · Mᵢ · e^(−k·(t−i)) for i ≤ t
k = decay rate (yr⁻¹) — how fast the waste's organic
fraction is consumed by anaerobic bacteria
L₀ = methane generation potential (m³ CH₄ / Mg waste)
Mᵢ = waste mass placed in year i (Mg)
t = current simulation year
Every "layer" placed while the site is active starts its own decaying exponential the day it's buried; the total site output is the sum of every layer still decaying. That sum rises while new, high-output layers keep arriving faster than old ones fade, peaks around closure, and then falls exponentially for decades as only decay (no new input) remains — the classic asymmetric landfill-gas curve used to size gas-collection wells and flares.
- Waste rate — tonnes accepted each year while the landfill is active (bigger mound, more gas).
- Decay rate k — wetter/warmer sites (more rainfall) decay faster; arid sites decay slower.
- L₀ — depends on waste composition; more food/paper waste means higher methane potential.
- Active life — how many years the site keeps accepting waste before closure; generation keeps rising until this point.
- Each cube in the mound is one year's waste cell — its glow shows what fraction of its original output it still emits, e^(−k·(t−i)).