Biodiversity Finance Gap: Funding the 30×30 Target

Funding Streams (target, $B/yr)

Domestic public budgets 55

International finance (ODA + GEF) 35

Private capital & credits 25

NBSAP submission rate %/yr 18

Progress

Year 2022

Total finance

$115.0B

Gap to $200B

$85.0B

NBSAP coverage

12%

Land & sea protected

17.0%

How it works

Each funding stream S_i relaxes toward the slider's target level T_i with first-order dynamics (a standard control-systems lag, the same form used for capital build-up in economic models):

dS_i/dt = k_i * (T_i - S_i)
Total(t) = S_dom(t) + S_intl(t) + S_priv(t)
Gap(t) = max(0, 200 - Total(t))

National Biodiversity Strategy & Action Plans (NBSAPs) are the Kunming-Montreal Framework's delivery mechanism — money without an adopted plan doesn't reliably become protected habitat. Coverage N(t) (share of Parties with a submitted NBSAP) grows logistically toward 100%:

dN/dt = r * N * (1 - N)
Effective(t) = Total(t) * N(t)

Protected area P(t) (% of Earth's land + sea, Target 3's "30×30" goal) advances only through effective finance, and saturates at the 30% ceiling:

dP/dt = c * (Effective(t) / 200) * (30 - P)

Funding sliders — set each stream's long-run target; the bars climb or settle toward it exponentially, never jumping instantly (real budgets ramp up over years).
NBSAP slider — the annual rate at which more countries adopt a plan; low values mean strong finance still fails to convert into real conservation outcomes.
Ring around the globe — sweeps out the current protected share; the white tick marks the 30% target.
Baseline values (2022) reflect the roughly $115B/year in tracked biodiversity finance and ~30% NBSAP coverage at the time the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework was adopted, against its $200B/year 2030 finance target (GBF Target 19) and 30×30 protection target (GBF Target 3).

Domestic budgets International finance Private capital $200B/yr target plane

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