Megaherbivore Rewilding & Permafrost Feedback

Rewilding Controls

Herbivore population target 40

Trampling intensity 1.0×

Climate warming offset +0.0°C

Simulation speed 2.0 yr/s

Live Readouts

Mean soil temp

—

Frozen fraction

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Simulated time

0.0 yr

How it works

Based on the Pleistocene Park rewilding hypothesis (Zimov et al.): in winter, snow is an excellent insulator, so it keeps the ground beneath it warmer than the air above. Large herbivores — mammoths, bison, horses — trample and compact the snow as they graze, destroying that insulating layer and letting the ground lose heat straight to the cold winter air.

T_eq(cell,t) = T_air(t) + S(t)·I_max·(1 − c)
dT_soil/dt   = (T_eq − T_soil) / τ

T_air(t) = T_mean + A·cos(2π·yearFrac)   [seasonal cycle]
S(t)     = snow-cover fraction, 1 in winter → 0 in summer
c        = local snow compaction from trampling, 0–1
I_max    = maximum insulating bonus of undisturbed snow (°C)
τ        = soil thermal-inertia time constant (years)

Population target — how many megaherbivores the landscape carries; the herd grows or shrinks toward this target over time.
Trampling intensity — how strongly each animal compacts snow as it passes; higher values erase the insulating layer faster.
Climate warming offset — raises the mean annual air temperature, the background pressure the herd is working against.
Frozen fraction — the share of the grid still colder than −1°C, a proxy for how much of the ground stays as stable permafrost rather than thawing and releasing its stored carbon.

This is the same feedback loop behind real rewilding-as-climate-mitigation proposals: reintroducing grazers is proposed as a low-tech way to keep permafrost (and the carbon locked inside it) frozen for longer, buying time against a warming climate — one of the more concrete, testable claims in the broader "synthetic ecology and restoration technology" debate, alongside more speculative ideas like engineering cold-tolerant traits into living elephants.

Year 0 · Winter

Frozen ground Thawed ground Megaherbivore

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