A reef's coral cover is a running balance between restoration/regrowth adding cover and heat-driven bleaching removing it.
cover(t+1) = cover(t) + growth*restoration - bleaching*heat_stress
- Reef grid size — reef sections tracked independently for coral cover.
- Restoration effort — share of reef actively managed with coral outplanting/assisted recovery.
- Heat stress / bleaching risk — marine heatwave intensity driving coral bleaching events.
- Coral growth rate — how fast healthy coral colonises open reef substrate.
Coral-outplanting programs in the Great Barrier Reef and Caribbean are racing exactly this dynamic — restoration effort has to outpace bleaching frequency to net gain cover.