Habitat Fragmentation & Metapopulation Persistence

Landscape

Habitat fragmentation 30%

Dispersal

Dispersal range 8.0

Local extinction rate 0.08

Metapopulation State

Occupied patch (population present) Empty patch (locally extinct) Dispersal corridor (within range)

Occupied patches

0 / 0 (0%)

Colonizations

Extinctions

How it works

A metapopulation is a network of local populations living in separate habitat patches, linked by occasional dispersal. Each patch is either occupied or has suffered a local extinction, and the whole system persists only if colonization keeps pace with extinction — the core idea behind Levins' (1969) metapopulation model and Hanski's (1994) incidence function model, both standard tools in conservation biology for reserve design.

Extinction (island biogeography):
  P(extinct | patch i) = e0 / A_i
  — smaller patches (A) lose their population more easily

Colonization (Hanski incidence function):
  S_i = Σ_j occupied  exp(-dist(i,j) / R)
  P(colonize | patch i) = 1 - exp(-c0 · S_i)
  — isolated patches (far from occupied neighbors, or
    beyond dispersal range R) are rarely recolonized

Habitat fragmentation — removes patches and shrinks the remainder, mimicking land clearing; fewer, smaller, more isolated patches raise extinction risk and cut colonization.
Dispersal range — the distance over which propagules (seeds, dispersing juveniles) realistically reach another patch; wildlife corridors work by effectively increasing this.
Local extinction rate — the baseline hazard e0 a population faces each step before the 1/area correction.

Real-world relevance: this exact area–isolation logic drives real reserve-design decisions — how big a protected patch needs to be, and how close patches must sit (or how a corridor must run) to keep a fragmented population from winking out.

Step 0

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