A colony's survival hinges on a simple balance: energy brought in by successful foraging trips versus energy spent maintaining the hive.
success ~ flower_density / (1 + stress)
colony_health ~ integral(nectar_in - upkeep)
- Forager bees — worker bees currently active in the colony's foraging force.
- Hive cells — brood/storage cells that must be kept fed to keep the colony alive.
- Flower availability — bloom density in range — shrinks under drought or mistimed spring warming.
- Heat/weather stress — combined heat-stress and storm-disruption factor cutting each trip's success odds.
Field studies already show measurable colony-collapse correlation with heatwave frequency and shifted bloom timing — this sim reproduces the underlying mechanism.