Bee Colony Synergistic Collapse Simulator

Stressors (independent)

🧪 Pesticide exposure 20

🦟 Varroa mite / parasite load 20

🌾 Forage / habitat loss 20

Colony status

Colony health

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Status

Healthy

Simple sum of individual effects vs actual combined stress

Sum: 0■ additive

Combined: 0■ + synergy

Active foragers

–

Synergy bonus

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How the synergy model works

Each stressor alone does damage in rough proportion to its level — a moderate dose of any single factor knocks the colony down but leaves it functioning. The three factors don't stay independent, though: pesticide exposure suppresses immune function, so the same mite load now costs more; a mite-weakened colony forages less efficiently, so the same habitat loss bites harder. Each pairing multiplies rather than adds.

additive   = 0.5·(P + V + H)
synergy    = 0.6·(P·V + V·H + P·H)/100 + 0.3·(P·V·H)/10000
damage     = additive + synergy
health     = 100 − damage

One stressor at 100 — additive term only (no partners to multiply with) ≈ 50 damage. Colony is weakened but alive.
All three at ~40 (moderate) — additive alone would only be ≈60 damage, but the three pairwise cross-terms add ≈30 more. Total crosses the collapse line even though no single dial left the "moderate" zone.
Collapse threshold — health below 20% and the colony can no longer sustain brood or foraging; below that the hive is marked collapsed.

This mirrors real colony-collapse research: sub-lethal pesticide doses impair detoxification and immunity, which measurably increases Varroa/virus damage at the same mite count, while a stressed colony's foraging efficiency drops even when the same flowers are available — the stressors amplify each other instead of simply stacking.

Healthy forager Lost / grounded bee Pesticide haze Mite load

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