Wildfire in a Changing Climate (2D)

Climate scenario

Avg. dead-fuel moisture –

Below the white line (~12–15% moisture) fine dead fuel — dry leaves, twigs, grass — becomes readily flammable.

Wind

Wind strength (E→W push) 0.0

Wind biases spread toward the downwind neighbor — a second real driver alongside fuel moisture.

Fire

Burned area

Burning now

Spread rate

0 cells/s

Time since spark

0.0 s

Same spark, two outcomes

Last run	Moisture	Burned
Historical	–	–
Current	–	–

Run the same spark under both scenarios (switch, reset, ignite) to fill in both rows and compare directly.

How it works

Wildfire science tracks dead-fuel moisture content — the percentage of a dead branch, leaf or grass blade's weight that is water — because it is the single strongest predictor of whether a spark catches and how fast it spreads.

flammability = clamp((M_ext − moisture) / M_ext, 0, 1)²
P(ignite neighbor, per tick) = flammability × baseSpreadRate × windFactor
burnDuration = lerp(maxBurn, minBurn, flammability)

M_ext — the moisture of extinction (~30% here): above it, fuel resists ignition almost entirely.
Climate scenario — sets the average fuel moisture and how patchy it is across the grid.
Wind — multiplies the spread probability toward downwind cells, on top of the moisture term.

Ignite the same spot under both scenarios: in the historical run the fire typically stalls; in the current-climate run the identical spark can race across the grid — the spark never changed, only the fuel's moisture did.

Historical climate

Moist fuel Dry fuel Burning Burned out