Every organism sheds trace DNA (skin, mucus, waste) into the water. That environmental DNA (eDNA) doesn't stay put: its concentration decays over time as microbes and UV break it down, and it dilutes as it spreads outward from where it was shed. A water sample only tests positive if the DNA concentration at that exact place and time is still above the assay's detection threshold.
C(r,t) = C0 ยท e^(โkยทt) ยท e^(โrยฒ/2ฯ(t)ยฒ), ฯ(t) = ฯ0 + sยทโt
- Decay rate (k) โ how fast DNA breaks down chemically/biologically; higher k means the signal disappears sooner after the organism leaves.
- Spread rate (s) โ how fast the plume mixes through the water body; faster spreading dilutes concentration at any fixed point sooner.
- Detection threshold โ the minimum concentration the PCR assay can reliably pick up; a more sensitive assay has a lower threshold.
- Sample volume โ a bigger water sample captures proportionally more DNA template, effectively lowering the concentration needed to detect.
The key idea: a NEGATIVE result never proves the species was absent โ it only proves the concentration at that sample's place and time was below threshold. The species can be truly present and still go undetected.