Market Validation Runway | mysimulator.uk

Weekly Experiment Budget

Total spend / week $1,000

Customer interviews 40%

Landing-page pre-order test 40%

Paid-ad smoke test (rest) 20%

Simulation speed 2.0 wk/s

Set your allocation, then hit Start.

Live Readouts

Weeks elapsed

0.0

Cash left

$20,000

Confidence 0% · threshold 75%

0%validation threshold 75%

How it works

Each week you split a fixed budget across three market-validation channels. Every channel has a real cost per unit and produces evidence with diminishing returns (square-root, so doubling spend never doubles proof):

interviews:  n = budget_i / $50/interview
landing page: v = budget_l / $5/visitor,  conversions = v · rate_l
ad smoke test: c = budget_a / $3/click,   preorders  = c · rate_a

evidence/wk = 6·√(positive interviews)
            + 5·√(3 · conversions)
            + 8·√(8 · preorders)   ← paying beats saying

Each channel's true positive rate is anchored to a hidden product–market fit value (0–1, randomized by "New Idea") plus noise — so a bad idea can generate a run of discouraging results even with a big budget, and a good idea can look shaky early on. Confidence integrates evidence minus a small constant skepticism decay every week:

confidence(t+dt) = clamp(confidence(t) + (evidence/wk − decay)·dt, 0, 100)
cash(t+dt)        = cash(t) − spend/wk · dt

Reach 75% confidence and the plane lifts off — validated. Run the cash to zero first and it stalls on the runway — not validated. The true product-market-fit number is revealed only at the end, exactly like a real market: you only ever see the noisy evidence, never the ground truth, until you've spent the runway finding out.

Interview evidence Landing-page evidence Ad pre-order evidence

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