Store-search ranking is not a black box here — it is a function of two levers. Keyword relevance (how well your title/description/metadata match the search term) and the number of apps competing for that same term combine into a rank position: better relevance and less competition push you toward position #1, where organic click-through is highest.
CTR(pos) = 0.42 · pos^-0.85 (clamped)
impressions/day = (searchVolume/30) · CTR(pos)
installs = impressions · conversionRate
Every simulated day, that day's impressions are split 50/50 between two creative variants (different icon + screenshot sets), each converting visitors to installs at its own rate. Installs accumulate, and a two-proportion z-test runs continuously on the live totals:
z = (p̂A − p̂B) / sqrt( p̂(1−p̂)(1/nA + 1/nB) )
Once both variants have enough impressions and |z| crosses ~1.96 (p < 0.05), the test calls a statistically significant winner — exactly how a real ASO A/B testing tool (e.g. in App Store Connect or Google Play Console) decides when to stop a test.
- Keyword relevance — how well your listing matches the search term; drives rank position.
- Competing apps — more competitors for the same keyword makes a top rank harder to hold.
- Conversion rate A/B — the fraction of store-listing visitors who tap Install for each creative variant.