The simulation plots actual test-score quartile against both true percentile ranking and self-estimated percentile ranking, showing how the estimate line stays roughly flat near the middle while the actual-performance line rises steeply from bottom to top quartile.
Choose a skill domain, drag the noise or sample-size slider to see how measurement noise and regression to the mean can reshape the gap between estimated and actual quartiles, and press play to watch simulated participants' self-estimates cluster toward the middle regardless of their true score.
Skill domain select, noise or sample-size slider, play/pause simulated participants, reset quartile chart
Justin Kruger and David Dunning's 1999 paper was titled Unskilled and Unaware of It, and it won them the 2000 Ig Nobel Prize in Psychology, a satirical award for research that first makes people laugh, then makes them think.
The simulation plots actual test-score quartile against both true percentile ranking and self-estimated percentile ranking, showing how the estimate line stays roughly flat near the middle while the actual-performance line rises steeply from bottom to top quartile.
The simulation plots actual test-score quartile against both true percentile ranking and self-estimated percentile ranking, showing how the estimate line stays roughly flat near the middle while the actual-performance line rises steeply from bottom to top quartile.
Choose a skill domain, drag the noise or sample-size slider to see how measurement noise and regression to the mean can reshape the gap between estimated and actual quartiles, and press play to watch simulated participants' self-estimates cluster toward the middle regardless of their true score.
Justin Kruger and David Dunning's 1999 paper was titled Unskilled and Unaware of It, and it won them the 2000 Ig Nobel Prize in Psychology, a satirical award for research that first makes people laugh, then makes them think.