Run the Arctic year: ice grows by conduction in winter, ponds form in summer, and open water absorbs the sun that the ice used to reflect.
Each button runs 4 model years headless from your current settings and reports the 4th September minimum cover, the April thickness and the largest pond fraction.
The science
Insolation and climate. Daily-mean top-of-atmosphere sunlight: Q = (S0/π)(h0 sinφ sinδ + cosφ cosδ sin h0), cos h0 = −tanφ tanδ, declination δ = 23.44° sin(2π(d−81)/365). At the surface: SW = 0.70 (1 − 0.4 c) Q. Air temperature is a seasonal cosine (mean −17 °C at 80 °N, amplitude 17 K, minus 0.7 K per degree of latitude) plus your warming offset. These are typical round numbers, not a reanalysis.
Surface balance (zero-layer ice). With ice-base temperature Tf = −1.8 °C and effective thickness heff = h + (ki/ks) hs: (1 − α)SW + KB(Ta − Ts) − L0(1 − 0.75 c) + (ki/heff)(Tf − Ts) = 0. KB = 12 W m⁻² K⁻¹ lumps turbulent and linearised longwave exchange; L0 = 90 W m⁻² is the extra longwave deficit under clear sky, reduced by 75 % of cloud cover. If Ts would exceed 0 °C it is held at 0 °C and the excess flux melts snow first, then ice.
Growth and melt at the base. ρi Lf dh/dt = ki(Tf − Ts)/heff − Fw, with ρi = 917, Lf = 3.34×10⁵ J/kg, ki = 2.1 W m⁻¹ K⁻¹. For a fixed Ts and Fw = 0 this integrates to Stefan's law h² = h₀² + 2 ki (Tf − Ts) t /(ρi Lf): thin ice grows fast, thick ice slowly.
Albedo and melt ponds. Bare ice α = 0.08 + 0.52 tanh(h/0.5 m); dry snow 0.84, wet snow 0.68 (surface within 2 K of melting); pond 0.30; open water 0.07. Pond meltwater depth W follows 60 % of the surface melt and drains or refreezes with a 6-day time constant when it is cold; pond fraction fp = 0.45 (1 − e−W/0.06 m), on snow-free ice only.
Open water and floe edges. The mixed layer (depth H) warms by sunlight on open water and loses heat to the ice base: ρw cw H dT/dt = (1 − A)[(1 − 0.07)SW + KB(Ta − T) − L0(1 − 0.75c)] − A·25(T − Tf). Lateral melt speed m = 1.6×10⁻⁶ (T − Tf)1.36 m/s (Maykut and Perovich 1987 form) acts on the floe perimeter, dA/dt = −4 A m / D, and the heat it uses, ρi Lf h ΔA, is taken from the mixed layer. When the layer would drop below Tf, the deficit freezes new 0.2 m ice (frazil), raising A. Together this is the ice-albedo feedback: less ice means more absorbed sunlight, a warmer layer and more lateral melt.
Freeboard. Archimedes with the snow load: fb = h − (ρi h + ρs hs)/ρw; the 3D floes are drawn at exactly this height.
Simplifications: one mean thickness for the whole pack, no ice drift, ridging or export, no thickness categories or internal brine pockets, no ocean heat advection, no wind forcing, constants typical rather than fitted. Use the sweeps for relative sensitivities, not forecasts. The glowing under-ice dots are illustrative. Assets built with Blender; scene by Three.js.