Net-Zero Emissions Pathway Simulator

Emissions Pathway

Baseline emissions 100,000 t/yr

Target net-zero year 2050

Reduction pathway

Permanent removal capacity 60%

Live Readout

Year

2025

Net emissions

100,000 t

Cumulative avoided vs do-nothing

Net-zero status at target year

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How it works

"Net zero" is not the same as "zero" — recognised standards (e.g. SBTi) require deep decarbonisation of ~90–95% of baseline emissions, with only the hard-to-abate residual (fixed here at 5% of baseline) neutralised by permanent carbon removal, not avoidance offsets.

Linear:      E(y) = E0 − (E0 − Er)·(y − y0)/(T − y0)
Exponential: E(y) = E0·(1 − r)^(y − y0),  r = 1 − (Er/E0)^(1/(T − y0))
Residual:    Er = 0.05 · E0   (post-target floor)
Removal:     ramps linearly from 0 at (T − 5) to capacity R at T, held after
Net:         N(y) = max(0, E(y) − min(E(y), ramp(y)))
Cumulative:  Σ N(y) vs Σ E0  (do-nothing baseline) over the same years

Baseline emissions — starting annual t CO₂e at year 2025.
Target year — the year gross emissions reach the 5% residual floor.
Pathway — linear (constant t CO₂e/yr cut) vs exponential (constant % cut/yr, the SBTi near-term convention).
Removal capacity — permanent CO₂ removal (DAC, BECCS, mineralisation…) as % of the residual it must cover; below 100% the target year still carries a net-positive gap.
The gauge on the right fills with cumulative net emissions avoided relative to a flat, do-nothing baseline over the same span.

Gross emissions / yr Removal applied Avoided-vs-BAU gauge

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