Carbon Credit Buffer Pool Simulator

Portfolio Setup

Forestry projects 10

Buffer contribution rate 18%

Annual reversal risk / project 4%

Regional risk correlation 30%

Registry Ledger

Buffer pool reserve100%

0 tCO2e heldcap 0 tCO2e

Credits issued (market)

0 t

Credits withheld (buffer)

0 t

Reversal events

Pool solvency

Solvent

Event Log

Simulation started — planting projects…

How it works

Each forestry project's living biomass follows a Chapman–Richards growth curve, the standard model used in VCS/Gold Standard methodologies for above-ground carbon stock:

C(t) = C_max · (1 − e^(−k·t))^p
tCO2e(t) = C(t) · 3.667   (carbon → CO2 mass ratio)

Every year, the CO2e a project has newly sequestered is split: a fixed buffer contribution rate is withheld into a shared, pooled non-permanence risk account, and the remainder is issued as tradable credits to the market — the same accounting the Verified Carbon Standard's AFOLU buffer pool uses to insure against future losses without requiring every project to self-insure.

Each year, every project independently risks a reversal event (wildfire, drought, disease, illegal logging) at the configured probability, boosted for all projects together when a shared regional shock fires (risk correlation — real reversal risk clusters geographically, e.g. one dry season igniting several plots at once). A reversal destroys a fraction of that project's standing stock; the pool then debits an equal amount of tCO2e from the shared buffer to cover the loss, exactly as the buffer mechanism guarantees credit integrity even when an individual project fails.

Buffer pool reserve — tCO2e currently held in the shared account versus its running cap (sum of all contributions to date).
Pool solvency — turns "Insolvent" the moment a reversal's loss exceeds what the pool holds: real-world evidence that the buffer rate or risk correlation was set too low for the portfolio's actual risk.
Raise the buffer rate or lower per-project risk to see the pool stay solvent through more shocks; raise correlation to see a single bad year threaten several projects (and the pool) at once.

Year 0

Healthy forest plot Reversal event (burned) Buffer pool reserve

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