Global Warming: Radiative Forcing Simulator

Radiative Drivers

CO₂ concentration 420 ppm

Solar irradiance 1361 W/m²

Aerosol / cloud cooling 0.50 W/m²

Energy Balance

Global mean temp

15.0 °C

Anomaly ΔT

+0.0 °C

Net radiative forcing ΔF

0.00 W/m²

Outgoing infrared photon Absorbed & re-emitted (trapped) Escaping to space

How it works

Earth's surface radiates infrared heat upward. Greenhouse gas molecules in the atmosphere absorb some of those photons and re-emit them in random directions — including back down — which is exactly what the orange/red particles above simulate: more CO₂ means a larger share get re-emitted downward (red) instead of escaping to space (blue).

Effective radiating temp:  Te = ( S(1-α) / 4σ )^(1/4)
CO2 forcing (IPCC form):  ΔF_CO2 = 5.35 · ln(CO2 / 280)
Solar forcing:            ΔF_sun = (S - 1361)/4 · (1-α)
Net forcing:               ΔF = ΔF_CO2 + ΔF_sun − ΔF_aerosol
Temperature response:      ΔT = λ · ΔF   (λ ≈ 0.8 K per W/m², ECS ≈ 3°C at 2×CO2)

CO₂ slider — moves along the logarithmic CO₂ forcing curve used in real climate models; every doubling adds the same ΔF.
Solar irradiance — the sun's own output varies slightly (11-year cycle, long-term trends); it enters the balance divided by 4 for Earth's spherical geometry.
Aerosol / cloud cooling — reflective particles from volcanoes, pollution and clouds subtract from the net forcing, partly offsetting greenhouse warming (today's real-world estimate is roughly −1 W/m²).
Run projection — ramps CO₂ from its current value toward 2× over 150 simulated years while the sparkline traces the resulting temperature path.

σ = 5.670×10⁻⁸ W/m²K⁴ (Stefan–Boltzmann constant), α = 0.30 (Earth's average albedo), pre-industrial baseline 280 ppm / 15°C.

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