Three linked formulas, adapted from an internal scenario-planning tool, drive the scene: ice thickness sets how much the pack ice slows an unescorted hull, vessel speed sets the transit clock, and fleet value sets the insurance exposure.
h_ice = C/50 + max(0, -T-10)·0.05 + w·0.02 (m, at T=-18°C, w=12 m/s)
t_transit = D/(v·1.852) + t_buffer, in hours (D=5,600 km, buffer=36 h)
Insurance = V_fleet · r (r = 3.2% seasonal rate)
- Sea-ice concentration — 0–100%, drives ice-floe cover on the water and the computed ice thickness. Above ~1.6 m of ice, an unescorted hull's effective speed drops sharply in the animation.
- Vessel speed — 6–22 knots, sets both the transit-time formula and how fast the ship actually moves along the corridor.
- Fleet value at risk — $50M–$2,000M insured value, sets the seasonal insurance budget and the colour of the risk halo around the ship (green → amber → red).
- Icebreaker escort — toggles a lead icebreaker that clears a channel; with it on, the main vessel holds full speed regardless of ice thickness, at the cost of the escort's own running expense.
Real-world relevance: as Arctic sea ice thins, cargo operators increasingly weigh a shorter polar route against the cost of an icebreaker escort and higher hull insurance — this is the trade-off the three sliders expose.