Kaya Identity 2D: Carbon Decoupling Dashboard

Kaya Identity Drivers (annual % change)

Population growth 1.0%

GDP per capita growth 2.0%

Energy intensity change -1.5%

Carbon intensity change -1.0%

Emissions Trajectory

CO2 = P · (GDP/P) · (E/GDP) · (CO2/E)

Year

2026

CO2 index

100.0

Net impact rate

+0.5%/yr

Decoupling?

How it works

The Kaya identity, a core tool of sustainability science (used by the IPCC to structure emissions scenarios), factors total CO2 emissions into four measurable drivers:

CO2 = P × (GDP/P) × (E/GDP) × (CO2/E)
    = Population × Affluence × Energy intensity × Carbon intensity

Each driver here compounds every simulated year as x(t) = x0 · (1+r)^t. The four colored bars on the left are the four factors on a shared height scale (index = 100 at year 0); the glowing bar on the right of the group is their running product — total emissions. Because the identity is a pure product, taking the log turns growth into a sum:

d(ln CO2)/dt ≈ r_P + r_A + r_E + r_C

"Decoupling" is achieved whenever the negative rates (falling energy and carbon intensity, from efficiency and clean energy) outpace the positive rates (population and affluence growth) — the net rate readout turns green and the trajectory line on the right starts sloping down even while GDP keeps rising.

Population / GDP per capita — the scale drivers; historically almost always positive.
Energy intensity (E/GDP) — efficiency: how much energy each unit of output needs.
Carbon intensity (CO2/E) — the energy mix: how much CO2 each unit of energy emits.
Paris-aligned preset — loads rates roughly consistent with a 1.5-2°C pathway, where intensity declines outrun growth.
Timeline scrub — click-drag inside the trajectory panel to jump to any simulated year without playing through it.

Year 2026 · index 100.0

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