Coal Region Just Transition Simulator (2D)

Transition Policy

Coal retirement rate 8%/yr

Renewable build-out rate 10%/yr

Retraining investment 6%/yr

Simulation speed 1.0 yr/s

Region Status

CO₂ emission rate

8.00 Mt/yr

CO₂ avoided (cum.)

0.00 Mt

Net regional jobs

Coal capacity left

100%

How it works

The region runs a coupled system of three ordinary differential equations, integrated every frame with a fixed sub-step for stability:

dC/dt = -k_close · C
dR/dt =  k_build · (1 - R)
dJ_r/dt = k_retrain · max(0, L(t) - J_r)
  where L(t) = J_c0 · (1 - C)   (workers displaced so far)

E(t)        = E0 · C(t)                       [Mt CO2 / yr]
CO2 avoided = ∫ E0 · (1 - C(τ)) dτ   from 0 to t
Net jobs(t) = J_c0 · C(t) + J_r(t) − J_c0

C is remaining coal capacity as a fraction of today's, decaying exponentially at the retirement rate. R is renewable capacity build-out, approaching full replacement at the build-out rate along an exponential-saturation curve dR/dt = k(1−R) — note: the 3D sibling's prose calls this "logistic," but a true logistic term is kR(1−R); the equation actually implemented (and used here, unchanged) is exponential saturation toward the ceiling R=1, which grows fastest at R=0 and slows monotonically — it never has the S-shaped inflection a logistic curve has. This 2D build keeps the same dynamics as the 3D original (so the two stay comparable) and corrects only the label. J_r is workers moved into clean-energy jobs: retraining can only absorb workers who have already been displaced (the max(0, L − J_r) term), and it does so at a rate set by the retraining investment slider — so underfunding retraining relative to the closure rate opens a temporary employment gap even though total capacity is unchanged.

Left field: coal stacks shrink and their smoke fades as C(t) falls. Drag the landscape panel to pan the camera left/right.
Right field: wind turbines rise and spin faster as R(t) grows.
History chart below plots C, R, CO₂ rate and net jobs over simulated years — drag it to scrub back through the run and read exact values at any past year.
Net regional jobs turns red whenever retraining lags behind closures — a direct visualization of why the pacing of a "just" transition matters, not only its endpoint.

Real-world relevance: this is the same class of model national just-transition funds (EU Just Transition Mechanism, US IRA coal-community provisions) use to time retirement schedules against retraining budgets so a region's net employment never craters mid-transition.

Year 0.0

drag landscape to pan · drag chart to scrub

Coal capacity Renewable capacity CO₂ plume / rate Net jobs (chart)