Carbon Credit Buffer Pool Simulator (2D)

Portfolio Setup

Forestry projects 10

Buffer contribution rate 18%

Annual reversal risk / project 4%

Regional risk correlation 30%

Registry Ledger

Buffer pool reserve100%

0 tCO2e heldcap 0 tCO2e

Credits issued (market)

0 t

Credits withheld (buffer)

0 t

Reversal events

Pool solvency

Solvent

Event Log

Simulation started — planting projects…

How it works

Each forestry project's living biomass follows a Chapman–Richards growth curve, the standard model used in VCS/Gold Standard methodologies for above-ground carbon stock:

C(t) = C_max · (1 − e^(−k·t))^p
tCO2e(t) = C(t) · 3.667   (carbon → CO2 mass ratio)

Every year, the CO2e a project has newly sequestered is split: a fixed buffer contribution rate is withheld into a shared, pooled non-permanence risk account, and the remainder is issued as tradable credits to the market. Each year, every project independently risks a reversal event at the configured probability, boosted for all projects together when a shared regional shock fires (risk correlation). A reversal destroys a fraction of that project's standing stock; the pool then debits an equal amount of tCO2e from the shared buffer to cover the loss.

This 2D build renders the identical yearly model as a project health-grid heatmap (one cell per project, colour = health fraction) and a scrolling solvency strip-chart (buffer balance vs. cumulative issued/withheld credits over time, with reversal events marked) — a dashboard view rather than a 3D orchard.

Buffer pool reserve — tCO2e currently held in the shared account versus its running cap (sum of all contributions to date).
Pool solvency — turns "Insolvent" the moment a reversal's loss exceeds what the pool holds.
Raise the buffer rate or lower per-project risk to see the pool stay solvent through more shocks; raise correlation to see a single bad year threaten several projects (and the pool) at once.

Year 0

Healthy project (grid) Reversal event (burned) Buffer pool balance (chart)